Where is Osama Bin Laden? An analysis

By Robert Windrem, NBC News Producer
It isn’t a comforting assessment.

A "Western military analyst" was asked earlier this month about reports that Osama Bin Laden was seen on the slopes of K2, the world’s second highest mountain on the Pakistan-China border, or in the Khost Province of Afghanistan.
His response was stunning in both its honesty and its frustration.
"We don't have a clue where he is or even may be,” the Western analyst said. “We have had NO credible intelligence on OBL since 2001. All the rest is rumor and rubbish either whipped up by the media or churned out in the power corridors of western capitals." In fact, say U.S. officials, the last time U.S. operatives saw Osama Bin Laden--other than in his own videos--was in the famous Predator video shot in August 2000 where he is seen walking with a security contingent near his compound at Tarnak Farms in eastern Afghanistan. The Predators had not been armed yet.
The last time the U.S. heard Osama Bin Laden was at the battle for Tora Bora, when an NSA operative overheard him giving orders on a frequency not normally monitored and not recorded. There were some initial concerns about the identification but the agency later learned from other sources and materials that indeed that had been him.
But that unfortunately is it.
There have been suggestions Bin Laden was wounded, and some speculation he has died. One piece of evidence that suggested he had been hurt was the long interval between videotaped messages from him, but those were a long time ago. A tape released around Christmas 2001--and thus after the Tora Bora battle--was later determined (through time references in the tape) to have been made about November 17, 2001. After that, there were no contemporaneous videos until the October 29, 2004, tape, the infamous one released just before the U.S. presidential election. (Don’t be surprised if he does that again; al-Qaida is very cognizant of election dates.)
Still, the US is confident about some aspects of Bin Laden’s life on the run, drawn from interrogations of other high value targets as well as notebooks and computer hard drives captured with al Qaeda officials or found after they were killed.
Where does he live?
Not in caves. The general belief, gleaned from interrogations of his compatriots, is that Bin Laden lives in one of the many mud-walled compounds that can be found along the border with Pakistan and Afghanistan. If you fly in a chopper, you will see them--large multi-walled buildings that are continually expanded. The largest ones are those of the clan leaders.


How often does he move?
Bin Laden is NOT believed to move that often, either. He does not normally change locations every night or even very frequently. He is believed to stay long periods of time--months in some instances--in one place. In some cases, al-Qaida security personnel have married into local tribes and clans, making them part of the extended family and giving Bin Laden and others additional protection. When he does move, it is not with a large convoy of trucks. (He used to be driven around in a white Mitsubishi Pajero, accompanied by white Toyota Tundras, but those days are long gone.) The latest information--and it is not current--is that he moves on motorbikes. One reason is that cars and trucks can be spotted by the roving “J-Stars” aircraft. Motorbikes cannot be as easily seen. According to Pakistani officials, Bin Laden and other al-Qaida officials move mostly late at night. In the hours after the sunset prayers, they will move into a village and take over a guesthouse in a large compound.
How is his health?
As for his health, he is 50 years old, turning 51 (according to the best estimates) in July. He does NOT have kidney failure and does NOT need dialysis. He has had kidney stones. He is also seen as somewhat of a hypochondriac. He is missing a toe, lost in a battle against the Soviets. He reportedly has an enlarged heart and chronically low blood pressure, which he treats with drugs. There is even some dispute over his height. Is he tall? Yes. Is he 6’5”? Maybe not. As one intelligence official told me, “If you see a guy who is 6’4” tall and looks like him, kill him.”
Who are his bodyguards?
His security personnel are directed by his brother-in-law and believed to include Chechen and Uzbeks as well as Arabs. And yes, there are reports that if he is about to be captured, his bodyguards have orders to “martyr” him. However, the default position of U.S. forces has always been to kill him, not capture him. Don’t expect heroic efforts to save him, as in the case of Abu Musab al Zarqawi. The same holds true for Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden’s deputy. The U.S. has Bin Laden’s DNA, which the Saudis provided. It’s always helpful when you have 52 siblings.

How important is he now?

The U.S. believes that OBL is more of a titular, inspirational leader, with Zawahiri as CEO and the leading philosopher. There has been some tension, the U.S. believes, between their Saudi and Egyptian underlings. The Egyptians are in charge, but virtually every counter-terrorism official we talk to notes that North Africans, particularly Libyans, are rising within what they call al-Qaida Central.
Do Bin Laden and Zawahiri travel together?
OBL and Zawahiri have not traveled together since mid 2003, for security reasons. Although the U.S. does not have a clue where OBL is, they have been able to track and target Zawahiri multiple times, by his own accounts. The most recent targeting was January 13, 2006, in Damodola in Pakistan. The U.S. fired volleys of Hellfire missiles at two guesthouses, but Zawahiri had already left. U.S. and Pakistani officials have told us that they believe he was tipped off. Zawahiri himself has admitted he was there.
Who is the next most important leader?
The U.S. has deliberately put a high priority on taking out al-Qaida’s Number Threes, killing or capturing five of them since September 11. They are the directors of international operations, the men who would organize attacks against the United States and United Kingdom. The big prize in each takedown are the computer hard drives, phonebooks and notebooks. To maintain operational security, al-Qaida requires that new courier and computer networks be formed. This obviously slows down planning. Moreover, the U.S. believes such takedowns are one of the few things that can push OBL’s security team to pick up and move. The hope is that U.S. spy planes see some of that movement.
Al Qaida’s current No. 3 is Sayed Sheikh, an Egyptian confidante of Zawahari.
Editor's note: NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams reports from Afghanistan this week to report on the region.
From : http://deepbackground.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/13/1138296

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MAS SELAMAT KASTARI

Mas Selamat bin Kastari (born 23 January 1961), an Indonesian-born Singaporean, is Singapore's most-wanted fugitive who escaped from detention on 27 February 2008. The search for him has been described as the largest manhunt ever launched in Singapore.[2] He was eventually recaptured in Johor Bahru, Malaysia on April 1, 2009, over a year after his escape.[3]
Mas Selamat was allegedly the head of the Singapore branch of militant group Jemaah Islamiah (JI), and he had previously escaped custody twice in Indonesia. Singapore authorities have alleged that he planned to crash seven bomb-filled trucks at various locations around the city-state.[4] In January 2006, Mas Selamat was arrested by Indonesian anti-terror squads in Java and deported to Singapore. He was suspected of plotting to bomb Singapore Changi Airport in 2002,[5] and, according to the Singapore Police Force, he had initially planned to do so by crashing a plane into the airport.[4] However, Mas Selamat has never been formally charged with any terrorism-related offences[1]; instead, he was detained under the country's Internal Security Act, which allows indefinite detention without trial.[6]
Childhood
Born on 23 January 1961, in Kendal, Central Java, Mas Selamat grew up in Kaki Bukit leading a typical childhood kampung life. He attended the Kaki Bukit Primary School, and was known simply as "Selamat" to his neighbors. In the early 1980s, Mas Selamat moved to a flat in Bedok Reservoir and became married with five children.[7][8][9]
Involvement with JI
Mas Selamat was believed to begin his involvement in the 1990s when he joined Darul Islam, a precursor movement to the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) group. By 1992, he had joined the Singapore JI cell and was sent to Afghanistan for training a year later. In 1998, he studied the Taliban system of government and returned home 'deeply impressed'.[10]
According to Singapore intelligence authorities, Mas Selamat has met Hambali, the leader of JI, and discussed various terror plots including hijacking a plane from Bangkok and crashing it into Singapore Changi Airport.[11][12] He escaped from Singapore in 2001 before authorities conducted a massive operation to arrest 13 suspected JI members in December 2001.
Arrests
Mas Selamat had earlier been arrested in February 2003 in the island of Bintan, Indonesia, to assist Indonesian police in their investigations of several bombings in Indonesia in 2001 and 2002. Mas Selamat had changed his identity, assuming the name of Edy Heriyanto and obtained an Indonesian passport. Found in his possession was literature on making bombs and the virtue of suicide. He was jailed for 18 months in 2003 for immigration offences.[5] He was, however, not handed over to Singapore upon his release, since Indonesia and Singapore do not yet have an extradition treaty. During this period of imprisonment, he broke his left leg in a botched attempt to escape when he jumped from a high floor, resulting in him walking with a permanent limp.[7][10].On 20 January 2006, he was arrested again for using a fake identity card in Java, where he was visiting his son who was said to be studying at a religious school there. Singapore requested Mas Selamat's extradition and he was handed over to Singapore on February 3, 2006,[13] where he was detained in Singapore under the Internal Security Act without trial.[14] The Malaysian intelligence authorities also wanted to question Mas Selamat who had made frequent visits to Johor before fleeing to Indonesia.[5]
Escape in February 2008
At 4:05 pm on Wednesday, February 27, 2008, the JI leader escaped from the Internal Security Department's Whitley Road Detention Centre where he was being detained.[4][15] His family were visiting him at the time, and he was being led to a room to meet them when he asked to go to the toilet. He then fled.[16][17] A massive manhunt comprising personnel from the Singapore Police Force, the Gurkha Contingent, the Police Tactical Unit and the Police National Service Key Installation Protection Unit were deployed in the vicinity of the area immediately after the escape. They were later aided by members of the Singapore Guards and the Singapore Armed Forces Military Police Command, before the operation was wound down over 17 hours later without success in locating the fugitive, who was believed to be unarmed.[18]
Authorities said security was very tight at the detention centre and conducted an independent study to determine how the fugitive escaped.[11] Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng acknowledged that a security lapse led to his escape, and that everything was being done to recapture Mas Selamat.[16][9] The Onraet Road facility has armed guards, high wire fences and CCTV cameras. Reactions to the escape were filled with surprise and disbelief in what Western observers describe as a country where "security breaches are virtually unheard of".[19][20] It brought serious embarrassment to the Singapore government,[21][22] and many questions raised by the public and the press.[21][22] Security around the schools in the area was also beefed up to assure worried parents.[23][24] Indonesia and Malaysia announced that they stepped up their own border security in the wake of this incident.[25][26]. Government authorities received more than 1100 calls on sightings of Mas Selamat. The earliest sighting of him was in a back road near MacRitchie Reservoir leading to Toa Payoh Lorong 1 right behind Braddell View Estates.
An urgent worldwide security alert, or Orange Notice, was issued by INTERPOL to each of its 186 National Central Bureaus following a request from Singapore.[27][28][29][11] The alert was later changed to red.[30] Wanted posters of Mas Selamat were put up in shopping centers, buses, train stations and even schools islandwide to appeal for the public to inform police should they spot him, and leaflets given out by volunteers to members of the public.[8] The three telecommunications companies in Singapore sent out Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) messages starting on 1 March 2008 to all 5.5 million subscribers with Mas Selamat's photograph, as well as email messages to SingNet Internet users.[31] The MMS read "Please call 999 immediately if you see Mas Selamat bin Kastari. He is short (1.58m tall) and limps on his left leg. Thank you." Lockdowns at border and immigration checkpoints also resulted in much longer queues for people leaving Singapore.There were conflicting reports on the whereabouts of Mas Selamat. While Singaporean police initially believed that he remained in Singapore,[32] others such as Malaysia's The Star reported that he may have fled to Indonesia via a speedboat ride.[20][33]On 21 July 2008, a cash reward of one million dollars was offered for information leading to the apprehension of Mas Selamat. The million dollar reward was put up by two private individuals who had approached the Home Affairs Ministry, wishing to remain anonymous. [34]
Public reaction
Response from certain sectors of the public has been sharply critical, particularly on the internet.[35][36] Agence France-Presse noted how "Terrorism is usually no laughing matter, especially not in security-conscious Singapore, but the escape from custody of a limping Islamist extremist suspect has led to scorn on the Internet."[21] Online critics also accused the pro-government media of trying to play down the incident and skirting key issues.[37] Speculations abound in the internet chatrooms and blogs, sometimes bordering on the incredulous. Some of them attributed the escape to black magic or insider collaboration. Claims of conspiracy theories, such as that Mas Selamat had died in detention or that he was let out to allow authorities to sniff out other terrorists, were also put up by the online community.[38]
Criticism has been directed towards Wong Kan Seng, the Minister of Home Affairs in Singapore, with regards to the fact that news of Mas Selamat's escape was not disseminated to the public until four hours after its occurrence. The public were not given any details until the next day at a parliamentary session. Wong then had cited a serious security lapse as the reason for the escape and revealed that Mas Selamat escaped when he was being taken to the toilet before a meeting at the Family Visit Room.[39]On 2 March 2008, it was announced that an independent Committee of Inquiry, chaired by former judge Goh Joon Seng, would be set up to find out how the escape occurred.
Findings of investigation
On 21 April 2008, the only findings of the Committee of Inquiry were released in a Parliament of Singapore session. It was announced that he escaped through an unsecured bathroom window. The Committee attributed the escape to three critical factors – first, the lack of grilles where the window was located; second, Mas Selamat being allowed to close the toilet door on the guards, thus avoiding detection during his escape and third, a physical weakness at the perimeter fencing outside the visitation centre.[40]
Additionally, the report stated that a re-enactment of the potential escape route would have taken 49 seconds to escape through the window and clear the perimeter fencing, with another 2 minutes and 44 seconds to reach the Pan Island Expressway located next to the detention centre. Mas Selamat had turned on the water tap after closing the toilet door and the guards on duty only acted on their suspicions 11 minutes after this incident. It is believed that Mas Selamat could have been gone for some time at that point.[41]It was later revealed that Mas Selamat had used an improvised flotation device to cross the Straits of Johor into Malaysia.[42]
On 7 August 2008, a man 'limping like' Mas Selamat was arrested by Indonesian police at Buluh Tumbang Airport in Tanjung Pandan, Belitung.[43]The man claimed to be an educational book salesman and not the Singapore fugitive person.[44] The man was later released.[45]On 8 May 2009, the media in Singapore reported that Mas Selamat had been captured by Malaysian authorities in Johor, Malaysia.[46] This report was later confirmed by both the Singapore and Malaysian governments, with the date of capture given as 1 April 2009.[47] Malaysian Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein confirmed that Mas Selamat is being held under the Internal Security Act, saying that he was "planning something, which allowed us to arrest him".[48] Hishammuddin declined to give details, since the case is sensitive as it involves intelligence agencies of Singapore, Indonesia as well as Malaysia.[48] Inspector-General of Malaysian Police Tan Sri Musa Hassan said that the arrest was made possible as the involved parties had been sharing intelligence reports since his escape.[49]
According to the media, Mas Selamat was captured in a secluded house in Skudai, 25 kilometres (16 mi) northwest of Johor Bahru.[49] Several people who had helped Mas Selamat to hide in the country were arrested along with him, and the news of the arrest was undisclosed for weeks to enable investigations into his network in Malaysia.[48]
References
1. ^ a b Agence France-Presse (2008-03-08). "Singapore should brace for attack if JI suspect flees island: Lee". http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hLa7OfclvB6XTxompK0tla4Wl--w. Retrieved on 2008-03-22.
2. ^ Mas Selamat can hold out indefinitely: experts, ST, 4 March 2008
3. ^ http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_373899.html
4. ^ a b c "JI detainee Mas Selamat Kastari escapes from Singapore detention centre". Channel NewsAsia. 27 February 2008. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/331477/1/.html.
5. ^ a b c "Singapore JI suspect nabbed in Java". The Star (Malaysia). 6 February 2006. http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/2/6/nation/13220557&sec=nation.
6. ^ The Associated Press (2008-03-01). "Security forces comb forests and seas for Singapore's escaped terror suspect". International Herald Tribune. http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/01/asia/AS-GEN-Singapore-Terror-Suspect.php. Retrieved on 2008-03-22.
7. ^ a b "Kampung boy, bus mechanic, bomb maker, wanted terrorist", Nur Dianah Suhaimi, The Sunday Times, 2 March 2008
8. ^ a b Fugitive hunt goes global, Leong Wee Keat & Rosnah Ahmad, Today (Singapore newspaper), 1 March 2008
9. ^ a b Singapore widen hunt for inmate, Al Jazeera, 29 February 2008
10. ^ a b JI leader broke leg in Bintan jail break: terror expert, The Straits Times, 29 February 2008
11. ^ a b c Interpol issues global alert for Singapore terror fugitive, Associated Press (International Herald Tribune), 29 February 2008 (Also see CNN)
12. ^ Qaeda Suspect Escapes, The New York Times, 28 February 2008
13. ^ "Indonesia sends terror suspect to Singapore-police". Reuters. 6 February 2006. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/KLR276937.htm.
14. ^ "JI terror suspect sent back to Singapore after arrest in Indonesia". Channel NewsAsia. 6 February 2006. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/191865/1/.html.
15. ^ Massive manhunt for escaped JI terror leader, The Straits Times, 27 February 2008
16. ^ a b JI leader escaped from toilet in detention centre due to 'security lapse', Chong Chee Kin, The Straits Times, 28 February 2008
17. ^ Singapore: Terror suspect fled toilet, Associated Press (CNN), 28 February 2008
18. ^ Ministry of Home Affairs - Ministry of Home Affairs News Release on Mas Selamat bin Kastari
19. ^ Escape of JI leader: How can this happen in S'pore?, The Straits Times, 28 February 2008
20. ^ a b Escape makes headlines overseas, Mavis Toh, The Straits Times, 2 March 2008
21. ^ a b c Singapore gov't butt of jokes after prison escape, Agence France-Presse, 3 March 2008
22. ^ a b Dangers of a bunker mentality, P N Balji, Today (Singapore newspaper), 3 March 2008
23. ^ SCGS steps up checks, security, Lee Pei Qi & Teh Joo Lin, The Straits Times, 28 February 2008
24. ^ Where is Mas Selamat?, Alicia Wong & Rosnah Ahmad, Today (Singapore newspaper), 29 February 2008
25. ^ Indonesia joins hunt for S'pore terror fugitive, The Straits Times, 28 February 2008
26. ^ M'sian police tighten border security with S'pore, The Straits Times, 28 February 2008
27. ^ INTERPOL issues global alert for suspected terror leader following escape from Singapore jail, INTERPOL, 28 February 2008
28. ^ Interpol Alert Follows Suspect Escape, Gillian Wong, The Associated Press (The Washington Post), 29 February 2008
29. ^ Interpol issues alert for escaped JI militant, Reuters (The Age), 29 February 2008
30. ^ Mas Selamat acted alone, still in S'pore: police, ST, 2 Mar 2008
31. ^ The face that launched 5.5 million cellphone alerts, Ben Nadarajan, The Straits Times, 2 March 2008
32. ^ JI terrorist Mas Selamat still in S'pore: police, The Straits Times, 2 March 2008
33. ^ Mas Selamat is said to know islands well, Interpol issues worldwide alert, Eddie Chua, The Star (Malaysia), 1 March 2008
34. ^ Channelnewsasia.com
35. ^ Bloggers’ reaction to JI leader’s escape, The Online Citizen, 28 February 2008
36. ^ JI Terrorist Escapes, The Singapore Daily, 3 March 2008
37. ^ Singapore faces blogging ire over militant escape, Reuters, 6 March 2008
38. ^ "Mas Selamat wins in blame game", ST, 15 Mar 2008.
39. ^ Security lapse led to escape of JI leader Mas Selamat, says DPM Wong, Channelnewsasia.com, 28 Feb 2008.
40. ^ [1], ChannelNewsAsia, 21 April 2008
41. ^ [2],International Herald Tribune, 21 April 2008
42. ^ http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/427768/1/.html
43. ^ [3], DetikNews - Pria Mirip Kastari Diincar Sejak di Jakarta, 8 August 2008
44. ^ [4], DetikNews - Pria Mirip Teroris Mas Selamat Kastari Ditangkap di Belitung, 8 August 2008
45. ^ [5], DetikNews - Polda Babel Lepas Pria Mirip Kastari, 8 August 2008
46. ^ "Singapore's JI leader Mas Selamat reportedly arrested in Malaysia". Channel NewsAsia. 8 May 2009. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/427691/1/.html.
47. ^ "Singapore government confirms arrest of Mas Selamat". Channel NewsAsia. 8 May 2009. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/427768/1/.html.
48. ^ a b c "'We will ensure Mas Selamat does not escape'". The New Straits Times. 9 May 2009. http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Saturday/Frontpage/2552561/Article/index_html.
49. ^ a b "Caught while sleeping". The Straits Times. 9 May 2009. http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_374488.html.

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